Agriculture critical to India-UK FTA talks
• India has been one of the few countries whose primary exports during Covid phase experienced a proliferation which mainly includes cereals, animal and vegetable fats, sugar, fruits, vegetables, pharmaceuticals, processed oils and fats. This has been the litmus test for Indian exporters during the pandemic phase and they have very justified their robustness.
• Overall, India’s agriculture exports to UK in May 2020 was US$ 56.35 Million. World’s exports of agriculture to UK for the same month was US$ 5,187 million. If we compare monthly figures, India covers roughly 1.1% of agricultural needs of UK.
• If we see the growth rate of imports from India and UK, for agriculture products, India’s rate is significantly higher for all those products where India is experiencing positive exports growth
• The scope to improve and escalate our market presence in UK is immense. Even a 5% target will push our agricultural exports significantly.
India is going to initiate negotiation over an India-UK free trade agreement (FTA) this year, which is a separate trade agreement negotiation from the European Union (EU). After at least four years, a new FTA is getting initiated by India, and that too with a developed nation. With the benefit of hindsight, Indian policymakers should try to make this deal more lucrative in terms of realizing market share in UK, especially for Indian agriculture products. We have observed most of the times that agricultural goods are either ostracized from trade negotiations or they remain dormant while exercising trade agreements (Aksoy, 2004).
Statistically, it is noteworthy that UK is a net agriculture importer, as its net imports of said products amount to US$ 34 billion, as indicated in the graph below. Thus, it seems to be an excellent gateway for India to promote its agriculture products from scratch while negotiating the agreement.
Source: ITC Trade Map, 2020, figures for UK in US$ billion
Focus on agriculture Products
India has been one of the few countries whose primary exports post-COVID experienced a rise, which mainly includes cereals, animal and vegetable fats, sugar, fruits, vegetables, pharmaceuticals, processed oils and fats. This has been a litmus test for Indian exporters during the pandemic phase and they have justified their credentials.
Here, we will be analysing India’s agri exports to UK during the pandemic phase, i.e. from February 2020 till May 2020, which is the latest data available. This will be compared with UK’s overall monthly exports from the world. If the intensity to import by UK is higher from India than from the world overall, then Indian products have a huge potential to cover UK’s market if a trade agreement can be established.
Overall, India’s agriculture exports to UK in May 2020 stood at US$ 56.35 million. The world’s exports of agricultural products to UK for the same month were at US$ 5,187 million. If we compare the monthly figures, India covers roughly 1.1% of agricultural needs of UK. Hence, the scope to improve and escalate our market presence in UK is immense. Even a 5% target will push our agricultural exports significantly.
Table: India’s exports to UK as per product category under agriculture in US$ Million and growth rate in %. Highlighted rows show a positive growth during this four-month time period
Product | Feb ’20 | Mar ’20 | Apr ’20 | May ’20 | Growth (%) |
0 Food & live animals | 49.02 | 69.13 | 58.35 | 53.57 | 0.97 |
00 Live animals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – |
01 Meat & meat preparations | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – |
02 Dairy products & eggs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – |
03 Fish & shellfish | 12.93 | 12.95 | 8.46 | 4.69 | -29.28 |
04 Cereals | 9.98 | 14.9 | 16.56 | 16.68 | 17.89 |
05 Vegetables & fruit | 14.13 | 26 | 21.02 | 21.25 | 10.65 |
06 Sugar | 0.3 | 0.39 | 0.25 | 0.98 | 36.87 |
07 Coffee, tea, cocoa etc | 7.89 | 9.42 | 7.5 | 6.67 | -7.09 |
08 Animal feeding stuffs | 1.09 | 2.73 | 3.05 | 1.67 | 14.88 |
09 Miscellaneous foods | 2.7 | 2.74 | 1.51 | 1.64 | -18.89 |
1 Beverages & tobacco | 0.14 | 0.18 | 0.1 | 0.62 | 46.99 |
11 Beverages | 0.14 | 0.18 | 0.1 | 0.62 | 47.4 |
12 Tobacco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.97 |
4 Animal & vegetable oils & fats | 1.32 | 1.34 | 1.11 | 1.96 | 10.55 |
41 Animal oils & fats | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.05 | – |
42 Vegetable oils & fats | 1.24 | 1.22 | 1.04 | 1.74 | 9.02 |
43 Processed oils & fats | 0.08 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.17 | 18.76 |
Source: Office for National Statistics, UK
It is evident that India’s agricultural exports growth to UK remained significantly positive for cereals, fruits and vegetables, sugar, animal feeding stuff, beverages and tobacco, processed oil fats. These could be some of the products, which could find the place under positive list while negotiating for India-UK trade agreement.
A similar comparison is made for world’s exports to see the intensity to import for UK from India vis-s-vis the world for agricultural products.
Table: World’s exports to UK as per product category under agriculture in US$ million and growth rate in %. Highlighted rows show a positive growth during this four-month time period
Product | Feb ’20 | Mar ’20 | Apr ’20 | May ’20 | Growth in % |
0 Food & live animals | 3,976.7 | 4,637.1 | 4,288.7 | 4,193.8 | 0.8 |
00 Live animals | 22.1 | 18.2 | 22.1 | 40.3 | 22.1 |
01 Meat & meat preparations | 653.9 | 796.9 | 629.2 | 583.7 | -5.6 |
02 Dairy products & eggs | 300.3 | 362.7 | 313.3 | 351 | 3.3 |
03 Fish & shellfish | 332.8 | 400.4 | 323.7 | 317.2 | -3.5 |
04 Cereals | 397.8 | 500.5 | 457.6 | 456.3 | 3.3 |
05 Vegetables & fruit | 1209 | 1353.3 | 1388.4 | 1329.9 | 3.2 |
06 Sugar | 120.9 | 98.8 | 118.3 | 87.1 | -7.7 |
07 Coffee, tea, cocoa etc | 396.5 | 425.1 | 390 | 367.9 | -3.1 |
08 Animal feeding stuffs | 228.8 | 276.9 | 230.1 | 280.8 | 4.4 |
09 Miscellaneous foods | 314.6 | 404.3 | 416 | 379.6 | 6.1 |
1 Beverages & tobacco | 730.6 | 861.9 | 820.3 | 841.1 | 3.8 |
11 Beverages | 565.5 | 668.2 | 648.7 | 657.8 | 4.3 |
12 Tobacco | 165.1 | 193.7 | 171.6 | 183.3 | 1.9 |
4 Animal & vegetable oils & fats | 126.1 | 167.7 | 166.4 | 152.1 | 5.7 |
41 Animal oils & fats | 7.8 | 7.8 | 13 | 10.4 | 14.7 |
42 Vegetable oils & fats | 88.4 | 122.2 | 110.5 | 109.2 | 5.5 |
43 Processed oils & fats | 29.9 | 37.7 | 42.9 | 32.5 | 3.9 |
Source: Office for national statistics, UK
If we see the growth rate of imports from India and UK, for agriculture products, India’s rate is significantly higher for all those products, where it is experiencing positive exports growth. So, going by India’s performance and potential in the domain of agriculture exports and that too during pandemic, it appears to be cogent that, by putting agriculture products in positive list, we can surely brand and escalate our products in UK directly.
Appendix: List of Agriculture Products where India is competitive and UK is also a significant importer of the products. After analysing UK’s imports, following products can be included in the positive list for negotiation:
List of Products:
Tariff Lines (at 8 digit) | Product Description |
3061792 | Frozen shrimps of the genus “penaeus”, even smoked, whether in shell or not, incl. shrimps |
10062098 | Long grain husked [brown] rice, length-width ratio >= 3 (excl. parboiled) |
9024000 | Black fermented tea and partly fermented tea, whether or not flavoured, in immediate packings |
8061010 | Fresh table grapes |
17031000 | Cane molasses resulting from the extraction or refining of sugar |
10063098 | Wholly milled long grain rice, length-width ratio >= 3, whether or not polished or glazed |
7099960 | Fresh or chilled sweetcorn |
15153090 | Castor oil and fractions thereof, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified |
3061799 | Frozen shrimps and prawns, even smoked, whether in shell or not, incl. shrimps and prawns |
8045000 | Fresh or dried guavas, mangoes and mangosteens |
20019010 | Mango chutney, prepared or preserved by vinegar or acetic acid |
9042200 | Fruits of the genus capsicum or of the genus pimenta, crushed or ground |
10062017 | Long grain husked [brown] rice, length-width ratio >= 3, parboiled |
20055900 | Unshelled beans “vigna spp., phaseolus spp.”, prepared or preserved otherwise than by vinegar |
23040000 | Oilcake and other solid residues, whether or not ground or in the form of pellets |
9103000 | Turmeric “curcuma” |
7132000 | Dried, shelled chickpeas “garbanzos”, whether or not skinned or split |
20089948 | Guavas, mangoes, mangosteens, papaws “papayas”, tamarinds, cashew apples, lychees, |
8013200 | Fresh or dried cashew nuts, shelled |
20059980 | Vegetables, prepared or preserved otherwise than by vinegar or acetic acid, not frozen |
9011100 | Coffee (excl. roasted and decaffeinated) |
21039090 | Sauces and preparations therefor, mixed condiments and mixed seasonings (excl. soya sauce |
23080090 | Maize stalks, maize leaves, fruit peel and other vegetable materials, waste, residues and by-products |
7122000 | Dried onions, whole, cut, sliced, broken or in powder, but not further prepared |
9093100 | Cumin seeds, neither crushed nor ground |
12074090 | Sesamum seeds, whether or not broken (excl. for sowing) |
19059080 | Pizzas, quiches and other bakers wares containing by weight … |
21069092 | Food preparations, n.e.s., not containing milkfats, sucrose, isoglucose starch or glucose or |
13023210 | Mucilages and thickeners of locust beans or bean seeds, whether or not modified |
9109105 | Curry |
12119086 | Plants and parts of plants, incl. seeds and fruits, used primarily in perfumery, in pharmacy |
15159099 | Solid fixed vegetable fats and oils and their fractions, whether or not refined, but not chemically |
20011000 | Cucumbers and gherkins, prepared or preserved by vinegar or acetic acid |
16052900 | Shrimps and prawns, prepared or preserved, in airtight containers (excl. smoked) |
21069098 | Food preparations, n.e.s., containing, by weight, >= 1,5% milkfat, >= 5% sucrose or isoglucose, |
10063067 | Wholly milled long grain rice, length-width ratio >= 3, parboiled, whether or not polished |
13023290 | Mucilages and thickeners of guar seeds, whether or not modified |
20089963 | Guavas, mangoes, mangosteens, papaws “papayas”, tamarinds, cashew apples, lychees, jackfruit |
21011100 | Extracts, essences and concentrates, of coffee |
24012085 | Partly or wholly stemmed or stripped flue-cured tobacco, otherwise unmanufactured |
9093200 | Cumin seeds, crushed or ground |
13023900 | Mucilages and thickeners derived from vegetable products |
14049000 | Vegetable products n.e.s |
10063048 | Semi-milled long grain rice, length-width ratio >= 3 (excl. parboiled) |
9041100 | Pepper of the genus piper, neither crushed nor ground |
13021970 | Vegetable saps and extracts (excl. opium, liquorice, hops, vanilla oleoresin and genus ephedra) |
11061000 | Flour, meal and powder of peas, beans, lentils and the other dried leguminous vegetables |
7133100 | Dried, shelled beans of species “vigna mungo |
8109075 | Fresh fruit, edible (excl. nuts, bananas, dates, figs, pineapples, avocados, guavas, mangoes |
9041200 | Pepper of the genus piper, crushed or ground |
6031100 | Fresh cut roses and buds, of a kind suitable for bouquets or for ornamental purposes |
9092200 | Coriander seeds, crushed or ground |
12130000 | Cereal straw and husks, unprepared, whether or not chopped, ground, pressed or in the form |
20049098 | Vegetables and mixtures of vegetables, prepared or preserved otherwise than by vinegar or acetic |
16052110 | Shrimps and prawns, prepared or preserved, in immediate packings of a net content of <= 2 kg |
9023000 | Black fermented tea and partly fermented tea, whether or not flavoured, in immediate packings |
12024200 | Groundnuts, shelled, whether or not broken (excl. seed for sowing, roasted or otherwise cooked) |
11010011 | Durum wheat flour |
3038990 | Frozen fish, n.e.s. |
9083100 | Cardamoms, neither crushed nor ground |
11010015 | Flour of common wheat and spelt |
7031019 | Onions, fresh or chilled (excl. sets) |
19019091 | Food preparations of flour, groats, meal, starch or malt extract, containing no milkfats, sucrose |
16042005 | Preparations of surimi |
3074338 | Squid “loligo spp.”, frozen |
9092100 | Coriander seeds, neither crushed nor ground |
19053191 | Sweet sandwich biscuits, whether or not containing cocoa, containing < 8% milkfats |
7096099 | Fresh or chilled fruits of genus capsicum or pimenta |
9101200 | Ginger, crushed or ground |
8134065 | Dried tamarinds, cashew apples, lychees, jackfruit, sapodillo plums |
9096100 | Juniper berries and seeds of anise, badian, caraway or fennel, neither crushed nor ground |
13019000 | Lac; natural gums, resins, gum-resins, balsams and other natural oleoresins |
9022000 | Green tea in immediate packings of > 3 kg |
20019097 | Vegetables, fruit, nuts and other edible parts of plants, prepared or preserved by vinegar |
3028990 | Fresh or chilled fish, n.e.s. |
20019020 | Fruit of genus capsicum, prepared or preserved by vinegar or acetic acid |
7149090 | Jerusalem artichokes and similar roots and tubers with high inulin content, fresh, chilled |
8023200 | Fresh or dried walnuts, shelled |
8011900 | Fresh coconuts, whether or not shelled or peeled |
20059950 | Mixtures of vegetables, prepared or preserved otherwise than by vinegar or acetic acid, not |
7139000 | Dried, shelled leguminous vegetables, whether or not skinned or split |
7099990 | Fresh or chilled vegetables n.e.s. |
16055400 | Cuttlefish and squid, prepared or preserved |
9062000 | Crushed or ground cinnamon and cinnamon-tree flowers |
7134000 | Dried, shelled lentils, whether or not skinned or split |
21039010 | Mango chutney, liquid |
20081110 | Peanut butter |
7129090 | Dried vegetables and mixtures of vegetables, whole, cut, sliced, broken or in powder |
8119085 | Guavas, mangoes, mangosteens, papaws “papayas”, tamarinds, cashew apples, lychees, jackfruit |
15155099 | Sesame oil and its fractions, whether or not refined |
3035990 | Frozen Indian mackerels |
7108095 | Vegetables, whether or not cooked by boiling in water or by steaming, frozen |
19012000 | Mixes and doughs of flour, groats, meal, starch or malt extract, not containing cocoa |
10063094 | Wholly milled medium grain rice, whether or not polished or glazed (excl. parboiled) |
9109910 | Fenugreek seed |
19023010 | Dried, prepared pasta (excl. stuffed) |
23091019 | Dog or cat food, put up for retail sale, containing glucose, glucose syrup |
9109991 | Spices, neither crushed nor ground |
Wow, fantastic blog layout! How long have you been blogging
for? you made blogging look easy. The overall look of your website is magnificent, let alone the content!