The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced its decision to maintain the policy repo rate at 6.5%. The unchanged policy repo rate benefits businesses with cheaper borrowing, stimulating investment and driving economic growth. This article takes a look at key announcements made by the Central Bank.
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RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das recently announced the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC’s) decision to keep the repo rate unchanged for controlling inflation and boosting economic growth. He also assured that the RBI is keeping an Arjun’s eye on inflation.
The policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) remains unchanged at 6.5%. The standing deposit facility (SDF) rate and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate, along with the Bank Rate, remain unchanged at 6.25 per cent and 6.75 per cent, respectively. The focus of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is on gradually withdrawing accommodation to align inflation with the target while supporting economic growth.
These decisions are taken with the objective of achieving the medium-term target for consumer price index (CPI) inflation of 4% within a band of +/- 2 per cent while supporting the country’s growth.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in India witnessed a sharp decline to 4.7% in April 2023 from 6.4% in February, primarily driven by favourable base effects. Food group inflation eased, and inflation in the fuel group also declined. The Reserve Bank of India projects CPI inflation to be around 5.1% for the fiscal year 2023-24.
The MPC’s decision to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 6.50% signifies its commitment to maintaining inflation within the target range. The RBI aims to achieve the medium-term target for CPI inflation of 4%, with a band of +/- 2%, while supporting economic growth. With an average daily absorption under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) increasing and the money supply expanding, the RBI is mindful of keeping inflationary pressures contained.
In the second quarter of 2023, the global economy has sustained momentum despite challenges such as elevated inflation, tighter financial conditions, banking sector stress, and geopolitical conflicts. Sovereign bond yields have traded sideways, reflecting expectations of the imminent peaking of the monetary policy tightening cycle. While some emerging market economies face risks due to weak external demand and tighter financial conditions, capital flows are cautiously returning on renewed risk appetite.
India’s domestic economic activity has displayed resilience and positive growth indicators. According to the provisional estimates released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), India’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth accelerated to 6.1% in Q4 of 2022-23, supported by fixed investment and higher net exports. The real GDP growth for FY 2022-23 was placed at 7.2%, surpassing earlier estimates.
High-frequency indicators in Q1 of 2023-24 reflect sustained expansion in the manufacturing and services sectors. Robust domestic air passenger traffic, e-way bills, toll collections, and diesel consumption indicate buoyancy in the services sector. Urban spending remains robust, as evidenced by double-digit growth in passenger vehicle sales and domestic air passenger traffic. Rural demand is gradually improving, while investment activity is increasing, reflected in healthy steel consumption and cement output.
Notably, India’s foreign exchange reserves were placed at US$ 601.4 billion as on May 27, 2022. The daily absorption under the LAF moderated to ₹5.5 lakh crore during April-May (2022-23) from ₹7.4 lakh crore in April-May (2022-22). Moreover, the money supply (M3) and bank credit from commercial banks grew by 8.8% (y-o-y) and 12.1%, respectively, as on May 20, 2022.
The RBI has been at the forefront of promoting digital transactions and introducing innovative solutions to enhance the efficiency of the financial system. MPC decides to take some initiatives to make the financial system efficient including:
The RBI has projected economic growth of 6.5% for 2023-24. This is lower than the growth rate of 8.7% in 2022-23. However, it has expressed optimism about the future of the Indian economy, noting that domestic economic activity is holding up well and that inflation is expected to decline in the coming months.
The higher rabi crop production in 2022-23, coupled with a normal southwest monsoon, is expected to support private consumption and overall economic activity in the current year. The government’s emphasis on capital expenditure, moderation in commodity prices, and robust credit growth further contribute to the growth of the Indian economy.
While weak external demand, geo-economics fragmentation, and geopolitical tensions pose risks, the projected real GDP growth for 2023-24 is at 6.5%. The risks are evenly balanced across quarters, with Q1 projected at 8, Q2 at 6.5%, Q3 at 6%, and Q4 at 5.7%.
The RBI’s unchanged policy repo rate benefits businesses with cheaper borrowing, stimulating investment and driving economic growth. Digital initiatives enhance financial system efficiency, benefiting exporters through smoother trade processes. Increased competition from digital transformation leads to lower prices and better services for consumers, offering long-term advantages for businesses. However, the RBI will need to continue monitoring the economic environment and adjusting its policies as needed.
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