India expecting 6 million tonnes sugar surplus

India will need to export 6 million tonnes of sugar in the 2020/21 marketing year that started on October 1, due to a jump in production that is attributed to higher area. The estimated sugar production in the new season is at around 31 million tonnes, which is a growth by 13% YOY, according to Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA). Further, India has commenced the year with carry forward stocks of 10.64 million tonnes as compared to 14.58 million tonnes last year.

The output has been estimated after consideration of an expected diversion of about 2 million tonne of cane juice and B molasses for ethanol production. In 2019-20, sugar production was at 27.42 million tonnes, with the diversion to ethanol at about 0.8 million tonnes. According to state-wise estimates, UP is expected to have slightly lower production (12.45 million tonnes), while Maharashtra (10.8 million tonnes), Karnataka (4.6 million tonnes) and Gujarat (1.08 million tonnes) are expected to experience an increase. Production in Tamil Nadu is expected to remain flat at 751,000 tonnes as per the first advanced estimates.